Gulp.
Based on my recent 22 miler time, the Runner's World Training Calculator predicts my marathon time to be a 4:07:25.
Say whaaaaaat??!?!?!
This seems OMG SO FAST to me. Like, SO fast. BEYOND my capability fast.
Let's dig deeper.
It says I should be able to run a mile in 7:46. Ok, that I can do. Thanks to the wonderful OCDlovers-tracking capabilities of DailyMile the fastest I've done a mile was about 7:33 and that was over 2.75 miles.
I've never time trialed a 5K that closely, though my personal 5K PR that I actually have recorded is 26:08. The RW calculator says I should be able finish one in 25:49. I actually think this isn't that crazy. My 26:08 was from way back in May 2012 and I've gotten a smidge faster since then and think I'm capable of a 25:49 now.
The half-marathon time. Hmmm... not even close. My half PR is 2:06:55. So not even remotely close to a 1:58:40 as RW thinks I can run. Like, not even in the same universe. Buuuut, OK. I have run 13 miles 2:00:XX during long runs recently. Still-- NOT a 1:58:40 for 13.1 miles. Definitely not.
A 4:07:25 for a MARATHON?? That just seems SOOOOO unattainable to me. I get there's science behind it and in theory I suppose it might be physically possible... for someone else. Are they crazy? ME?!?!? A sub 4:08? No. Not even a chance. I mean-- hello. I'M SLOW. This is just nonsense.
So, what DO I think I can run the marathon in? I honestly have NO CLUE. I think I'll be happy with a sub 4:30. I mean, I'll be happy just finishing, if I'm being really honest. BUUUT- I can't lie and say I haven't thought about a time goal. Sub 4:30. MAYBE Sub 4:20. But, a 4:07:25?? COME ON! That's a 9:26 pace. That's a SUB 9:30 pace. What?!?!?!? I mean-- there's just no way.
So basically this little calculator is now giving me a full blow panic attack. Enter freak out. Enter nerves out of control. Enter heart beating way too fast.
Why, RW? Why?
I mean... there's just. no. way.
Don't say that it isn't obtainable, you need to give yourself more credit for all of the hard work you have been putting into this race. :-)
ReplyDeleteyou just never know!!! look how fast you did that 22! and you know how everyone runs races faster. maybe it's a little out of your league - but i bet you'll surprise yourself. just enjoy the race and don't worry about time! :)
ReplyDeleteThank you Tasha! Yes, first of all, calm the freak outs a bit! You don't want to nerves and low confidence to mess with your possibilities. I say start believing what you are cabable of so then if you do start to falter you can tell yourself, "I know I can do this". Because you can. You have proven this again and again, run after run. The mental block is just that - a MENTAL block. Not a physical one. Your legs want to run and they want to run fast. Do a couple of runs the next few days without your garmin and run by feel. See where you fall. If you know the distance and you know the start/end time you can figure out the rest. I think this will boost your confidence a lot. Some of it is purely instinctual for your body at this point. Now you have to BELIEVE it!
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